By Alanna Shaikh
I know it’s February, but I thought I’d offer some NTD predictions for 2012. Better late than never, right? It’s going to be a very interesting year for global health. Not necessarily in a good way. When the dust settles, though, we’ll have a whole new picture of what the planet’s health looks like. Here are three trends to watch for in NTDs:
- The expanding role of public-private partnerships. Collaboration between the private sector and government has always been key to success in the effort to combat NTDs. In the last few years, we’ve seen more and more successful collaborations. The most recent is the brand new Uniting to Combat NTDs partnership that seeks to eliminate or control 10 NTDs by 2020. Although it seems like every possible company and organization is part of that coalition, there have to be a few that were left out. So I think we’ll see more announcements of cooperative efforts in 2012, especially with regard to drug donations from pharmaceutical companies, and cooperative R&D for NTD treatments.
- A new treatment. Several of the NTDs have promising research going on with regard to treatment. In particular we are finally seeing research on new drugs for helminthes and sleeping sickness. It’s a long shot, but if we’re lucky we’ll see promising new treatments for worms and trypanosomiasis in 2012.
- At least one country will eliminate an NTD. Between the efforts of the END7 campaign, the Uniting to Combat NTDs partnership, and the ongoing efforts in many countries to fight NTDs, we’re going to see results. One likely candidate for elimination is lymphatic filariasis (LF). Nigeria has been making good progress in pushing it out of the country; it may eliminate LF in all provinces in 2012. Another possibility is Guinea Worm. It is now present in only three countries: Ethiopia, Mali, and South Sudan. While 2012 is not going to be the year that South Sudan starts achieving public health goals[i], Ethiopia has a very strong chance of having no indigenous cases of Guinea Worm in 2012.[ii]
- Increased concern about NTDs, HIV, and Tuberculosis. I’ve talked before about the relationship between drug resistant TB and NTD treatments. More Tuberculosis makes NTDs more dangerous. HIV also has an ugly symbiosis with several NTDs. Genital schistosomiasis increases HIV transmission risk. Worms make HIV progress faster, and they increase the risk of maternal to child transmission. In 2012 I predict we’ll see more media and academic attention on the links between HIV, TB and the NTDs.
[i] I really wish it was that year. South Sudan is the world’s newest nation, and wouldn’t it be amazing if they could set an example for the rest of us? But conflict and public health are not in any way compatible, and South Sudan is facing far too much violence.
[ii] In addition to indigenous cases, Ethiopia consistently sees infections in people who have come into the country from South Sudan. In other words, non-indigenous cases.
Alanna Shaikh is an expert in health consulting, writing about global health for UN Dispatch and about international relief and development at Blood & Milk. She also serves as a frequently contributing blogger to ‘End the Neglect.’ The views and opinions expressed by guest bloggers are not necessarily the views and opinions of the Global Network. All opinions expressed here are Alanna’s own and not those of any employer or the US government.